Sturart Rothenberg just released the latest House rankings and there is a lot of moving in our direction. The one that stands out for me is the move of NV-03 to “Tilt Democratic”. More below the fold.
Here are our latest House ratings. Our latest estimate is a Democratic gain of 10-20 seats.
Any seats not listed are currently considered to be at limited risk for the incumbent party. For our race-by-race analysis, you must subscribe to the print edition of the Report.
# = Moved benefiting Democrats
* = Moved benefiting Republicans
^ = Newly addedPURE TOSS-UP (7 R, 3 D)
AL 5 (Open; Cramer, D)
FL 8 (Keller, R)
FL 21 (L. Diaz-Balart, R) #
FL 24 (Feeney, R)
MN 3 (Open; Ramstad, R)
NH 1 (Shea-Porter, D)
NJ 7 (Open; Ferguson, R)
NM1 (Open; Wilson, R)
OH 15 (Open; Pryce, R)
PA 10 (Carney, D)TOSS-UP/TILT REPUBLICAN (8 R, 1 D)
CT 4 (Shays, R) #
LA 4 (Open; McCrery, R)
LA 6 (Cazayoux, D)
MI 7 (Walberg, R) #
NM 2 (Open; Pearce, R)
NY 26 (Open; Reynolds, R)
NY 29 (Kuhl, R)
NC 8 (Hayes, R)
WA 8 (Reichert, R)TOSS-UP/TILT DEMOCRATIC (6 R, 6 D)
AZ 1 (Open; Renzi, R)
CA 11 (McNerney, D)
CO 4 (Musgrave, R)
FL 16 (Mahoney, D)
GA 8 (Marshall, D)
IL 11 (Open; Weller, R)
KS 2 (Boyda, D)
NJ 3 (Open; Saxton, R)
NV 3 (Porter, R) #
OH 16 (Open; Regula, R) #
PA 11 (Kanjorski, D)
WI 8 (Kagen, D)LEAN REPUBLICAN (9 R, 1 D)
AL 2 (Open; Everett, R)
FL 25 (M. Diaz-Balart, R) #
IL 10 (Kirk, R)
KY 2 (Open; Lewis, R) ^
MI 9 (Knollenberg, R)
MO 6 (Graves, R)
OH 1 (Chabot, R)
OH 2 (Schmidt, R)
PA 3 (English, R)
TX 22 (Lampson, D)
VA 2 (Drake, R)LEAN DEMOCRATIC (1 R, 5 D)
AZ 5 (Mitchell, D)
AZ 8 (Giffords, D)
KY 3 (Yarmuth, D)
OR 5 (Open; Hooley, D)
PA 4 (Altmire, D)
VA 11 (Open; Davis, R)REPUBLICAN FAVORED (9 R, 0 D)
CA 4 (Open; Doolittle, R)
FL 13 (Buchanan, R)
ID 1 (Sali, R)
IL 6 (Roskam, R)
MD 1 (Open; Gilchrest, R)
MN 6 (Bachmann, R)
MO 9 (Open; Hulshof, R)
PA 6 (Gerlach, R)
WV 2 (Capito, R)DEMOCRAT FAVORED (2 R, 5 D)
AK A-L (Young, R)
IL 14 (Foster, D)
IN 9 (Hill, D)
KS 3 (Moore, D)
MS 1 (Childers, D)
NY 13 (Open; Fossella, R)
NY 20 (Gillibrand, D)
NY 25 (Open; Walsh, R)Dropped : MN 1 (Walz, D) #
Getting around to cleaning up his ratings. I suspect Cook and Sabato will make quite a few moves in our favor too in the near future.
during the Obama midterm. The best thing Obama could do is go out early and put his ground game into place for 2010 and campaign heavily with Democrats to make sure they keep Congress. It would also be nice if he could pass universal health care and keep his approval ratings high so Republicans dont get too energized.
That Anzalone polling and the feeble Porter rejoinder that his support is about 40%…’lean Democratic’ is about the most skeptical Rothenberg can rate Titus’s chances and not get laughed at. There’s a lot at stake in Clarke County this year- Nevada Democrats think they can tip the state Senate, their US House delegation, and the statewide vote to Blue. That’ll be a massive change in a state that has an awful set of Red State laws and a culture of crappy low level government. And the votes to do it are mostly in NV 3.
I think Rothenberg’s overrating Capito, Gerlach, Knollenberg, Buchanan and underrating e.g. Shea-Porter, Heinrich, Stender, and Kilroy’s chances. He’s counting on a lot of ambivalent Republican leaners coming home at the end of the campaign. Where he’s wrong is that there just aren’t enough of them.
He was one of the more surprising Yes votes on the bailout yesterday.
Why is TX-22 “Lean Republican”? OK, so the demographics hurt us here. Still, from the word on the ground here, it doesn’t seem like the GOP is favored to pick up this seat this year.
But otherwise, I guess Rothenberg gets it right. Can’t you tell I’m ecstatic about Dina Titus (NV-03)??!! I’m not getting complacent yet, so I’ll just make this motivate me to give some more $$$$ and schedule another Vegas trip or 2 to help put her over the top! 😉
http://swingstateproject.com/s…
Note his Septrmber 26 diary showing a 9 point Titus lead at 46-37 from Anzalone-Liszt. I was going to put this on a list of upsets but at this point, Titus is the leader.
The one who seems to be coming on is Jill Derby.
Republicans are big on pulling dirty tricks in Nevada and have been for decades. Look for them to contest voters and slow up the lines in Vegas. Maybe give special hassles to newly enrolled voters. I don’t think they will be close enough to save Porter no matter how many shennanigans they pull.
They are by far the most favorable to us
Likely Takeover (2 R, 0 D)
NM Open (Domenici, R)
VA Open (Warner, R)
Lean Takeover (4 R, 0 D)
Smith (R-OR) #
Stevens (R-AK)
Sununu (R-NH)
CO Open (Allard, R) #
Toss-Up (1 R, 0 D)
Dole (R-NC)
Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (3 R, 1 D)
Coleman (R-MN)
Landrieu (D-LA) #
McConnell (R-KY) #
Wicker (R-MS)
Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (1 R, 0 D)
Collins (R-ME)